Sea Harvest Group (SHG) – Tough act to follow

We expect SHG’s fish exports to its largest export market – Spain to soften in FY21. Our analysis suggests that Spain’s retail sector is showing some weakness while its food and beverages sector recovery has plateaued. Without tourism, we believe that Spain’s normalising retail sales may not be counter-balanced with a strong recovery in the foodservices sector to which SHG is dependent. We find that Australian consumers may be shifting their seafood consumption towards locally sourced seafood which could have a lasting impact on the demand for the group’s prawn catch in the country. We expect Sea Harvest International to build on FY20’s momentum albeit without significant margin uplift as discounting of Australia’s seafood persists.