Boxer’s share price had a strong run following its listing, peaking at R72.59/share on 26 March 2025. Its maiden results as a listed company, however, tempered the enthusiasm for the share, as they revealed some of the downside risks we had previously identified.
Turnover growth in FY25 was the lowest since FY16 and, worryingly, growth slowed to c. 4.0% y-y in the last seven weeks despite Boxer opening 36 stores in 2H25. We are concerned that this weak momentum may have carried through into early FY26.
Our analysis shows that most new stores over the past year were opened in Gauteng and KZN, two key whitespace markets for Boxer. The weak growth raises some questions, including that new stores in highly competitive provinces may be less impactful than initially expected.
Management toned down their topline growth forecasts to low-teens. In FY25, Boxer opened 48 stores, which is a significant miss from the 65-store target set only four months before year-end. To achieve its turnover growth targets, Boxer will need a strong pipeline of new sites and deliver these timeously. With fewer PIK store conversions to draw on, this could be challenging.
Boxer’s normalised expense growth was high at around 16% y-y, according to our calculations, and we think this figure could remain elevated in the near term, as it becomes fully independent of PIK and invests in its growth.