We present the case that the pharmaceutical manufacturers could show some resilience in a downturn as increasingly stressed consumers switch to more out-of-pocket payments (OOP) and self-medication. We provide a comprehensive review of the private and public healthcare systems in South Africa, including the prevalence of chronic conditions and show that Adcock’s restructuring has resulted in a lean, focused and forward looking company with the aim of expanding its non-SEP regulated portfolio but growth is a key concern. Ascendis has aggressively grown its assets through acquisitions since listing in 2013. We are concerned that Ascendis is chasing market share at the expense of organic growth. We believe the Phyto-Vet division and the Remedica oncology portfolio presents a good growth opportunity for Ascendis.
