Massmart (MSM) – HEPS Forecast revision

Following the release of MSM 1H17 results, we update our forecasts and target price. The poor topline growth of -0.5% y-y in 1H17 was disappointing, but management did well to control expense growth to only -0.2% y-y. We are concerned about the vulnerability of the MSM business to the downturn, even in its Masscash division, which as a predominantly food business, should be relatively defensive.