Despite strong performance across its opcos, MTN remains exposed to several risks including exposure to regions which are economically vulnerable. A recovery in the oil price is unlikely to resolve Nigeria’s economic challenges. Uncertainty around growth prospects, a lack of clarity around monetary policy and complications related to the multiple exchange rate regime is creating uncertainty for investors. A slowdown in foreign investment and dwindling forex reserves is hampering the availability of hard currency. MTN is in the process of raising funds through its asset realisation programme (ARP), however the progress of asset disposals is subject to favourable market conditions. Over the longer term, management’s ARP target seems relatively conservative and committing proceeds from the ARP to reducing Holdco debt and localising debt will significantly de-risk the business.
