TFG – Jetting for growth, but locked down in UK

TFG’s acquisition of Jet could provide it with considerable growth opportunities, firstly as it turns the business around to its previous potential, and secondly, to enable TFG to become a key competitor in the value segment. Our comparison of the current Jet business to its historical performance, shows scope for substantial improvements in trading densities and GP margins. We assess TFG London’s last impairment test assumptions and believe that an impairment of c. R2bn-R3bn could be incurred in FY21. Our analysis of TFG’s online and physical store performance in 1H21, shows that TFG London’s physical stores sales may have contracted significantly in 1H21. TFG Africa’s online sales in 1H21 are equivalent to the sales of 86 of its physical stores, which in the context of its store footprint, is still insignificant. We do not think there will be a dramatic change in the online sales contribution post-Covid 19 for TFG Africa, as its middle-market customer base may revert to the preferred in-store shopping.