We engaged with industry experts and conducted a detailed analysis of fuel supply chain data to assess the likely impact of a protracted Middle East conflict on South Africa.
The dynamics within the fuel supply chain have changed considerably over the past seven years, including a shift to importing refined products rather than crude, the closure of three of the country’s six refineries, and a change in sourcing countries. While SA has reduced its dependence on Saudi Arabia, imports from India, the UAE, and Bahrain have risen, and we estimate that 44% of imported fuel supply could be at risk of disruption. However, if India can secure crude from other sources (e.g., Russia), the share of imported fuel at risk drops to 31%.
SA benefits from Sasol’s Synfuels operations, which are not dependent on crude oil. This refinery can process 150 000 bpd (23.8m litres), which covers around 35.5% of SA’s daily demand. In a worst-case scenario, the balance of daily demand can be covered by the strategic fuel reserves for around 20 days, according to our estimates.
We have considered some options available to the government, including reverting to more crude imports from Africa, but we conclude that recommissioning mothballed refineries is unlikely to yield short-term benefits. If the situation worsens, fuel rationing may be needed, but it could be limited given the contribution from Synfuels.
With fertiliser, we find a rising reliance on imported products. Fortunately, imports from the Middle East have declined from 40% in 2021 to 20% in 2025, with Russia and China now the main suppliers to SA. Using the experience of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on fertiliser prices, we argue that prices may spike but the increases should be less pronounced than in 2022, given the relatively lower volumes from the region. Regardless, fertiliser and fuel account for c. 47% of crop costs, and food inflation is likely to rise.
We note the views of some listed companies and their preparedness for any fuel and fertiliser disruptions. We present some factors that could alleviate the pressure on SA, and a review of marine traffic destined for the country suggests that fuel shortages are not imminent.